Questions 1. Missile Defense Version 2.0 What happens if you change .95 to .99 so it's quite a bit more reliable. What's the probability of New York being destroyed now? Answer: $.951$ 2. Dating 101 (a) Suppose when you throw a die the probability of getting any of the 6 possible outcomes is the same, as usual. Now suppose you throw this die 10 times. What's the probability that you'll never get a 1? Now let's try to apply this to a real life situation. Bob wants to go out on a date. His roommate Jim, says that about one in every 5 times he asks someone out, they agree. So Bob decides to ask Mary out. He figures he'll ask her out 25 times. Well what's the probability of him getting at least one date with her? Using the same logic as before, you see the probability is $1-.8^{25} = .996$ which is pretty good odds. As a bit of common sense will tell you, this tactic won't work. If Mary says no to Bob, the repetition of the same offer in rapid succession 25 times will only irritate her, reinforcing in her mind the opinion that a date with Bob would be rather less pleasant than a tooth extraction. If Bob wants to go out on dates, he should try changing majors and become a lawyer. Bob is not only socially challenged, but he should have also realized that applying a formula is only expected to work if the conditions on its derivation are satisfied. (b) What are the conditions in the derivation that weren't satisfied?