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Let's go through a simple calculation of the expected price difference
for a stock.
Suppose that in a
day the stock price fluctuations up and down by 3%. What's the
expected fluctuation in the stock price after 200 days?
Let's measure time in units of a day. Then with ,
the equation for the random walk eq, 2.16
becomes
But we've said the fluctuation in the price in one day
is 3% which equals
.
This means that . So after 200 days,
so that
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(2.17) |
This means that after 200 days, the stock price will fluctuate
up and down from its initial value by more than 40%.
People often attempt to describe volatility
using a quantity known as , or simply "beta".
The calculation of it involves an application of
linear regression so it's neat example of applying
what we've previously learned.
Josh Deutsch
2009-03-05
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