1.1 Why Study Probability?

If you learn with certainty that your mother is a hippopotamus, this is a fact you’ll be unlikely to ever forget. If you learn that Boltzmann’s constant is 1.381023m2kgs2K1 this is a fact that you’re unlikely to remember. What you had for lunch 302 days ago is also something that you probably don’t recall. Fortunately for most of us, we’re very good at deciding what facts to remember at which to forget. It it wasn’t so, we’d end up as one of those weird dysfunctional professors, uhh… I mean idiot savants that you hear about.

So will you remember probability? Well maybe not, but you’re likely to encounter it later on and say to yourself ”hmm, I really hated it when I studied it, and now I have to use it all the time. That sucks”. But if this happens, I hope that you’ll eventually get the hang of it, because a lot of people don’t, and they end up doing a lot of really crappy statistical studies making all sorts of incorrect conclusions about the economy, medicine, psychology, and even the ”hard sciences”, like physics.

Take this example, you’re always hearing about the latest medical findings: people that drink guanabana juice have a 30% less risk of developing cancer of the elbow. Most of these studies are crap. That’s because most people can plug and chug, applying some standard set of formulae, but don’t understand their domain of validity. So such a study may cause a lot of writhing on the floor due to a surfeit of juice, but on the other hand this may also be good business for the guanabana growers. In any case, the point I’m making is that in the long run, you’ll likely encounter concepts involving probability quite often, so you should try to get the hang of it sooner rather than later.